Opportunity Cost Is the Only Metric That Matters
Why most long-term mistakes come not from what decisions cost, but from what they quietly crowd out across investing, work, and life.
Exceptional businesses. Long-term ownership.
Essays and frameworks on capital-light compounders with durable advantages and room to reinvest at high returns, written for long-term owners.
Selected Essays
View all →AI, Labor, Capital — Follow the Incentives
A structural look at artificial intelligence through the lens of labor and capital incentives — and why understanding human motivation may matter more than forecasting model capability.
When Trimming a Winner Improves the Math
Why trimming an extended position can improve probability-weighted returns, and how valuation discipline and tax structure shape long-term compounding.
AI Is a Feature, Not a Threat, for Royalty Businesses
Why AI increases operating leverage and durability for protected royalty businesses like FICO, Moody’s, and S&P Global.
The Deepfake Paradox: Why the Selloff Is Backwards
In an AI world where information gets cheaper and less trustworthy, verification becomes scarce and trust infrastructure may matter more, not less.
Why Great Businesses Don’t Always Make Great Investments
Why operational excellence alone isn’t enough, and how valuation, scale, and capital allocation shape outcomes.
Investing in a U.S.–China Bipolar World
A calm, capital-allocation-focused take on what this era changes for investors, what doesn’t, and why business quality matters more than macro narratives.
The Coming Power Constraint and Monolithic Power's Role in It
A power bottleneck view of AI infrastructure, and why MPS could be a long-duration beneficiary.
Progressive: The Relentless Compounding Machine
Culture, data, and discipline as durable advantages, why this insurer compounds through cycles.
Why Dividends Are Mostly Irrelevant
Dividends as a side effect, not the goal. Compounding depends on reinvestment and capital allocation.