AI, Labor, Capital — Follow the Incentives
Looking at artificial intelligence through the lens of labor and capital incentives — and why understanding human motivation may be more useful than forecasting model capability.
Essays
A complete archive, listed from most recent to oldest.
All Essays
View on Substack →When Trimming a Winner Improves the Math
Why reducing an extended position can improve probability-weighted returns — and how thoughtful calibration, tax structure, and valuation discipline compound over time.
The Deepfake Paradox: Why the Selloff Is Backwards
How AI-generated misinformation increases the value of trust infrastructure — and why businesses like Moody’s and S&P Global may be more essential, not less.
AI Is a Feature, Not a Threat, for Royalty Businesses
Why AI increases operating leverage and durability for protected royalty businesses like FICO, Moody’s, and S&P Global.
Opportunity Cost Is the Only Metric That Matters
Why most long-term mistakes come not from what decisions cost, but from what they quietly crowd out across investing, work, and life.
Investing in a U.S.–China Bipolar World
What actually changes for investors in a U.S.–China-dominated world, what doesn’t, and why business quality matters more than macro narratives.
What Actually Drives Real Estate Prices in Canada
A first-principles breakdown of what actually moves Canadian housing prices over time.
Why Great Businesses Don’t Always Make Great Investments
Why operational excellence alone isn’t enough, and how valuation, scale, and capital allocation shape outcomes.
Most Financial Advice Exists to Reduce Anxiety, Not Build Wealth
What mainstream financial advice is designed to do, and why it often produces average outcomes by construction.
Apple (AAPL): A Business I’m Comfortable Owning Indefinitely
A calm long-term case: ecosystem lock-in, capital-light economics, and disciplined capital allocation.
American Express (AXP), The Apple of Credit Cards
Closed-loop economics, premium positioning, and durable advantages through cycles.
How I Nearly Tripled My Money in Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE)
An update on the COKE thesis: what worked, what changed, and what I learned.
Why Dividends Are Mostly Irrelevant to My Investment Approach
Dividends are a side effect, not a goal. Compounding depends on reinvestment and capital allocation.
The 11–13% CAGR Mindset: A Framework for Beating the Market Without Heroics
A practical framework for long-term compounding with disciplined psychology and concentrated bets.
The Psychology of Concentrated Investing: Why Owning 15 Great Stocks Beats Indexing
Why concentration can outperform if you can handle volatility and stay rational.
Fastenal (FAST), A Business Built to Hold Everything Together
Distribution density and embedded workflows as a durable compounding engine.
Why Great Businesses Compound Without Capital
Capital-light economics and why the best compounders often require less capital than you’d expect.
The Coming Power Constraint and Monolithic Power’s Role in It
AI’s next bottleneck is power, and MPS is built to solve it.
Progressive: The Relentless Compounding Machine
Culture and data create durability, and underwriting discipline compounds.
Autodesk: A Quiet Compounder Built on Standards
Standards plus switching costs plus disciplined execution as a steady compounding machine.
Revisiting FICO: Still the Quiet Compounder (Nov 2025)
FICO is still a great business, but at a demanding multiple I’m holding, not buying.
The Weakness of Selling Too Early — and the Strength of Not Anchoring
Selling too early kills compounding; real strength is staying detached from price anchors.
How I Doubled My Money in Coca-Cola Consolidated in Just Over a Year
Valuation, improving business quality, and local moats.
Why I Own Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR)
Power-management silicon and the design-win flywheel into the AI era.
Why I Bought FICO in November 2022
Decisioning as a standard, pricing power, and platform transition.