If AI Gets Cheap, Microsoft Wins
A look at why the value from AI may accrue to companies that already own customer workflows and distribution.
Essays
A personal archive of analytical essays, listed from most recent to oldest. These are general observations and personal commentary, not recommendations.
All Essays
View on Substack →Canada’s Housing Wealth Has Masked a Weaker Economy
A macro essay on housing wealth, productivity, affordability, and living standards in Canada.
How an Engineer Evaluates a Business
A systems-based look at business quality through bottlenecks, maintenance requirements, failure modes, and operating leverage.
AI, Labor, Capital — Follow the Incentives
Artificial intelligence viewed through labor and capital incentives rather than short-term model forecasting.
When Trimming a Winner Improves the Math
How valuation discipline, position sizing, probability, and tax structure can shape long-term outcomes.
The Deepfake Paradox: Why the Selloff Is Backwards
Why verification, trust, and established data infrastructure may become more important as information becomes cheaper to create.
AI Is a Feature, Not a Threat, for Royalty Businesses
How software, data, standards, and workflow ownership can affect business quality as AI tools become more common.
Opportunity Cost Is the Only Metric That Matters
A practical essay on what decisions quietly crowd out across investing, work, and life.
Investing in a U.S.–China Bipolar World
What may change for investors in a U.S.–China-dominated world, what may not, and why business quality still matters.
What Actually Drives Real Estate Prices in Canada
A first-principles breakdown of what tends to move Canadian housing prices over time.
Why Great Businesses Don’t Always Make Great Investments
Why operational excellence alone is not enough, and how valuation, scale, and capital allocation shape outcomes.
Most Financial Advice Exists to Reduce Anxiety, Not Build Wealth
A neutral look at why mainstream financial advice often emphasizes behaviour, suitability, and risk control.
Apple (AAPL): A Business I’m Comfortable Owning Indefinitely
A calm long-term view of ecosystem lock-in, capital-light economics, and disciplined capital allocation.
American Express (AXP), The Apple of Credit Cards
A business-model essay on closed-loop economics, premium positioning, and durability through cycles.
Coca-Cola Consolidated: A Case Study in Patient Investing
An update on the COKE thesis: what worked, what changed, and what the case study illustrates.
Why Dividends Are Mostly Irrelevant to My Investment Approach
A personal framework for thinking about dividends as one part of capital allocation, rather than as the goal itself.
The 11–13% CAGR Mindset: A Framework for Beating the Market Without Heroics
A practical framework for thinking about long-term compounding, business quality, valuation, and temperament.
The Psychology of Concentrated Investing: Why Owning 15 Great Stocks Beats Indexing
A personal view on portfolio concentration, volatility, and the behavioural demands of owning fewer companies.
Fastenal (FAST), A Business Built to Hold Everything Together
A business-model essay on distribution density, embedded customer relationships, and operating discipline.
Why Great Businesses Compound Without Capital
Capital-light economics and why some of the best compounders require less incremental capital than expected.
The Coming Power Constraint and Monolithic Power’s Role in It
A look at power-management silicon, AI infrastructure, and the importance of solving electrical bottlenecks.
Progressive: The Relentless Compounding Machine
How culture, data, pricing discipline, and underwriting execution can create durable business quality.
Autodesk: A Quiet Compounder Built on Standards
How standards, switching costs, and disciplined execution can support a durable software business.
Revisiting FICO: Still the Quiet Compounder (Nov 2025)
A follow-up on FICO as a business, with attention to quality, valuation, and expectations.
The Weakness of Selling Too Early — and the Strength of Not Anchoring
A personal essay on compounding, price anchors, and the difficulty of staying rational after large moves.
What Coca-Cola Consolidated Taught Me About Valuation
Valuation compression, better bottling economics, and a quiet capital return shift.
Why I Own Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR)
A business-model essay on power-management silicon and the design-win flywheel.
Why I Bought FICO in November 2022
A look at decisioning standards, pricing power, and the platform transition that shaped the original thesis.